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Written by TFP   
Saturday, 21 March 2009 22:26

There are only five things more dangerous than Spring Training stats:


1. Dry-humping a Burmese Tiger
2. Working PR for AIG
3. Raising your voice to Chris Brown
4. A night out clubbing in Amarillo, TX
5. Jagermeister

Last spring we were bullish on Yunel Escobar stock. As it turned out, Escobar was nothing more than a Cuban Craig Counsel. On the other hand, drafters who gambled on Josh Hamilton got paid. Players who had huge Springs in 2008 included Andre Ethier, Micah Hoffpauir, Connor Jackson, Pedro Feliz, Jose Cruz, Chris Snyder, Edison Volquez, John Maine, Andrew Miller and Ryan Dempster. As you can see, psychoanalyzing Spring Training stats is a risk/reward proposition. With that said, here are some players whose tantalizing Cactus and Grapefruit performances might result in increased draft day buzz.

 

Arizona
Mark Reynolds, who struck out 4,384 times in 2008, has 11 this spring, but he also has 3 steals with a .324 average. We like Reynolds a little bit this year.

Being overworked for the last three years might be catching up with Brandon Webb. Captain Control’s K:BB is 8/4 and his ERA is over 7.

Atlanta
Don’t call it a comeback: Jeff Francoeur is hitting .343 with just 1 SO in 35 AB.

Derek Lowe (ADP: 164) has struck out 17 batters in 16 IP.

Baltimore
Adam Jones and Ryan Freel have combined for 13 SB.

In the race to see who closes for the 63-win Orioles, we think Chris Ray (0.00 ERA in 7 appearances) has a distinct advantage over George Sherrill (3.60, 3 BB, 4 SO).

Boston
Jed Lowrie (.439 with 6 2B, 2 3B and 2 HR) has been spraying the ball all over and with Julio Lugo hurt, the SS job is his to lose.

Post-hype breakout candidate Clay Buchholtz has 12 SO in 13 IP.

Chicago Cubs
Micah Hoffpauir (4 HR, 18 RBI) is up to his old tricks.

Shawn Marshall has posted a 0.63 ERA with 8 SO in 14 innings.

Chicago White Sox
Jermaine Dye (35) is hitting .186 but we don’t doubt he’ll still hit 27 HR and drive in 90-plus.

Gavin Floyd (13 SO in 15 IP) and John Danks (17 SO in 17 IP) continue to fly under the radar.

Cincinnati

Joey Votto (.308) is one smooth Canadian. We’re pretty sure he could hit .300 wearing snowshoes.

Where have you gone, Aaron Harang (7.24, 6 SO, 4 BB)?

Cleveland
Pronk Hafner’s demise (.160) has not been greatly exaggerated.

Who closes once Kerry Wood’s arm detonates? Jensen Lewis (0.00, 6 SO, 1 BB) is Wood’s likely successor.

Colorado
Has anyone looked better during the World Baseball Classic than Chris Iannetta?

Carlos Gonzalez (.200), playing with his third team in three years, doesn’t seem to be leapfrogging Ian Stewart or Seth Smith for playing time in LF.

What’s the name of the elixir Aaron Cook (1.93, 15 SO in 14 IP) has been drinking and can we get some?

Detroit
Gary Sheffield (3 HR) probably has one more impactful year left in him.

Sorry Edwin Jackson (7.00, 8 SO, 6 BB), you’re not for reeeeeeeal.

Florida
Uber-tease Jeremy Hermida is hitting .343 with 3 HR and a 1:1 BB/SO.

Leo Nunez (7.20 and ZERO career saves) figures to inherit closer role with Matt Lindstrom nursing busted wing but you really want to hitch your wagon to that horse?

Houston
Carlos Lee (.080) is taking the Spring off, but he’s as sure a lock for 30 HR and 100 RBI as there is.

Further proof none of these Spring Training stats amount to a hill of beans: Russ Ortiz has a 3.63 ERA with 12 SO in 17 IP. Yes, that Russ Ortiz.

Kansas City
Mike Jacobs (ADP: 247) has 5 homers this spring. Is it so ridiculous to think he could hit 40?

Speaking of homer happy Royals, Mark Teahen also has 5 HR. And he’s projected to play 2B this year. Cha-ching.

Los Angeles Angels
Kendry Morales (.395) will make Anaheimers forget all about Casey Kotchman.

Dustin Moseley is rocking a 2.57 ERA with 12 SO in 14 IP. He looks like a lock to make the Angels’ rotation. Remember, Joe Saunders made the All-Star team in 2008…

Los Angeles Dodgers
Rafael Furcal isn’t hitting (.171) or running (0 SB).

Hiroki Kuroda (.075 in 12 IP) is scheduled to pitch Opening Day against the Braves. He’s a nice late-round steal but don’t expect much in the way of strikeouts.

Milwaukee
Corey Hart (.450, 5 HR, 3 SB) has sex appeal in bulk.

Dude we wish we had on every team: Yo Yo Gallardo (14 SO in 13 IP).

Minnesota
Delmon Young (.351, 2 HR) is a textbook post-hype breakout candidate despite always looking quite sleepy.

Scottie Baker’s line (8.31, 8 HRA) gives us night terrors.

New York Mets
The Mets have to find some AB for Daniel Murphy (.385), right?

This just in: John Maine (10.38, 10 SO, 7 BB, 13 IP) still blows.

New York Yankees
We’re digging the Gardner: A-Rod’s replacement is hitting .378 with 3 HR and 4 SB.

Perhaps we’ve been too hard on Joba Chamberlain (11:1 SO/BB in 10 IP).

Oakland
We always confuse Travis Buck and Jack Cust.  They’ve combined for 5 HR and 15 HR.

Grab Gio Gonzalez (8 SO in 8 IP) as a late-round lottery ticket.

Philadelphia
Matthew Berry hates Ryan Howard. Ryan Howard (.310, 6 HR, 16 RBI) says, “Who the f*** is Matthew Berry?”

Pittsburgh
The Pirates have another post-hype breakout candidate in Andy LaRoche (.438).

Paul Maholm (.046, 12 SO, 1 BB, 19 IP) is a man amongst soon-to-be-AAA boys.

San Diego
Aside from A-Gone, where will the offense come from? Maybe behemoth Kyle Blanks (.327, 4 HR, 34 TB, 16 SO).

San Francisco
Pablo Sandoval (.450, 2 HR) is precisely the kind of chubby kid-done-good story we root for. Like Philip Seymour Hoffman or Megan Fox.

Drafting Matt Cain (21 HA, 15 SO in 16 IP) could take years off of your life.

Seattle
We probably give the WBC performances too much weight, but we can’t help but crush on Jose Lopez. Hits everything pretty hard and seems to have a competitive gear that’s hard to find in the laid-back Pacific Northwest.

Tyler Walker (5.79) and Mark Lowe (16 HA, 2 SO, 4 BB) have something in common: Neither should be closing for a Major League team.

St. Louis
Ryan Ludwick is hitting .159 but does have 9 RBI (UPDATE: Luddie had a HR and 5 RBI Saturday)

Jason Motte (13 SO in 8 IP) looks like a star in the making.

Tampa Bay
No actual stats here, just an observation: We’re starting to get a really bad vibe about all the hype this rotation (Shields, Kazmir, Garza, Price, Sonnanstine) is getting.

Texas
Nelson Cruz, who is quite the temptress, is slugging 1.048 in 21 AB

Chris Davis, whose ADP (75 and climbing) would suggest he’s kind of a big deal, leads the world in Spring Training Ks (18) and has just 1 HR and 2 RBI. Buyer beware.

Toronto
Travis Snider (.361 with 3 HR, 8 RBI) might be worth the gamble.

Just wondering… In a 12-team league with 24-man rosters, does another Blue Jays starter get taken after Doc Halladay? Jessie Litsch? Gross.

Washington
Elijah Dukes (.333, 4 RBI) is bat-shit crazy, but we love him as an OF5 stash.

By now, someone close to you has fallen ass-over-head in love with Jordan Zimmerman (20 SO in 14 IP). It’s a nice story but how much upside does the Nationals’ No. 5 starter have, really?

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